Climate Vulnerability, Household Deprivation, and Child Morbidity in Indonesia: A Multilevel Bayesian Analysis of Spatial Inequality, Causal Pathways, Predictive Modeling, and Economic Burden

This repository contains a presentation of preliminary findings from the research project “Climate Vulnerability, Household Deprivation, and Child Morbidity in Indonesia: A Multilevel Bayesian Analysis of Spatial Inequality, Causal Pathways, Predictive Modeling, and Economic Burden.” The study integrates national health survey data with high-resolution climate information to examine how climate variability interacts with social and maternal health factors to influence child morbidity across Indonesian provinces. Using a combination of descriptive epidemiology, Bayesian multilevel modeling, spatial analysis, machine learning prediction, and economic burden estimation, the research addresses eleven interrelated questions on climate–health relationships and social vulnerability. Key components presented in this dissemination include: Spatial distribution of heat stress, rainfall extremes, and drought across Indonesia Patterns of child morbidity by province, deprivation level, and urban–rural context Identification of population vulnerability profiles Assessment of independent and interactive effects of climate vulnerability, household deprivation, and maternal health risks Spatial risk mapping and identification of high-risk provinces Predictive modeling of child morbidity Estimation of climate-attributable excess morbidity and associated economic burden The analyses were conducted using multilevel Bayesian approaches and national survey datasets, complemented by climate indicators derived from meteorological and satellite-based sources. Results are intended to inform climate-sensitive child health policies, social protection programs, and geographically targeted public health interventions in Indonesia. ABSTRACT Background:Indonesia faces increasing exposure to climate-related hazards, including heat stress, extreme rainfall, and drought. Children are among the most vulnerable to these environmental changes, yet national-level evidence on how climate variability interacts with social deprivation to shape child morbidity remains limited. Understanding these pathways is essential for developing equitable and climate-sensitive health policies. Objectives:This study aimed to assess the influence of climate vulnerability on child morbidity in Indonesia, examining independent effects, mediation through household deprivation, effect modification, spatial inequality, predictive performance, and the economic burden of climate-attributable illness. Methods:An integrated analytical framework was applied using national survey data linked with high-resolution climate indicators. Multilevel Bayesian regression models were employed to estimate associations between climate vulnerability, household deprivation, maternal health risk, and child morbidity while accounting for provincial heterogeneity. Spatial disease mapping identified geographic hotspots, and machine learning techniques evaluated predictive performance. Counterfactual simulations were used to estimate climate-attributable excess morbidity and associated economic costs. Results:Marked spatial variation in climate hazards and child morbidity was observed across provinces. Climate vulnerability showed a positive association with child morbidity after adjustment for socioeconomic and maternal factors, with evidence of significant provincial heterogeneity. Household deprivation partially mediated this relationship and strongly modified its effect, indicating disproportionate impacts on socially disadvantaged children. Spatial analyses identified high-risk clusters, particularly in Java and parts of eastern Indonesia. Predictive models demonstrated limited individual-level discriminative ability, highlighting the dominance of structural determinants. Economic modeling suggested a substantial national burden of climate-attributable child morbidity, concentrated in densely populated provinces. Conclusions:Child morbidity in Indonesia is shaped by the combined and unequal effects of climate vulnerability and social deprivation. Effective responses require geographically targeted, climate-adaptive health interventions integrated with social protection programs. The findings provide actionable evidence to guide climate-resilient child health strategies and resource prioritization in Indonesia.