Prevented planting (PP) coverage is a key component of the Federal Crop Insurance Program, providing indemnities when adverse weather prevents timely planting and reimbursing early-season production costs. Historically, producers could enhance this protection through optional PP buy-up coverage, which increased PP indemnities without affecting coverage against other yield or revenue losses. Recent policy changes eliminate all PP buy-up options beginning with the 2026 crop year, embedding planting-season risk management entirely within the underlying insurance coverage decision. This article examines whether and how producers can substitute higher coverage levels for the loss of targeted PP buy-up protection. Using administrative data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency, the analysis documents both the mechanical feasibility of coverage-level substitution and observed producer responses following the earlier removal of the 10 percent buy-up in 2018. Results show that modest increases in coverage can approximate former buy-up protection at intermediate coverage levels, but substitution becomes nonlinear and constrained as producers approach the 85 percent coverage ceiling. Observed behavior indicates gradual and incomplete shifts toward higher coverage among former buy-up users, with limited adjustment among producers already near coverage limits. Overall, the findings suggest that eliminating PP buy-ups reduces producers’ ability to manage planting-season risk in a targeted manner and shifts risk management toward broader, costlier coverage choices. This transition has implications for producer-paid premiums, program subsidies, and the overall exposure of the Federal Crop Insurance Program to in-season losses.
Tsiboe et al. (Thu,) studied this question.