India has serious problems managing its water resources because of its fast urbanization, agricultural use, and population increase. Changing climatic conditions have enhanced water stress and drought frequency. This study investigates spatio‐temporal drought conditions in west‐central India, one of the most drought‐affected regions in the country for the period between 1951 to 2022 using the SPI for three, six and 12 months. Trend analysis using the modified Mann‐Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis methods reveals mild to severe drought, with non‐monotonic negative trends dominating in most areas. Large‐scale climate oscillations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are identified as key drivers of drought patterns. To quantify the causal relationship between climatic indices and droughts, a nonlinear Granger causality test (NGCT) was employed, revealing stronger nonlinear influences. Additionally, a GIS‐based Fuzzy‐Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to delineate groundwater potential zones, integrating hydrometeorological and physiographic factors. Results showed that 25.61 per cent, 20 per cent and 54.38 per cent of the area falls within high, moderate, and low GWP zones respectively. Random Forest analysis validated the relationship between drought and GWP with an R 2 value of 0.858, highlighting the model's accuracy. This study offers new information about the necessity of efficient water resource management in areas that are vulnerable to drought.
Soniya et al. (Wed,) studied this question.