What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Cohort. Population: Cardiovascular disease mortality (n=6780). Intervention: SCORE2 model vs. Traditional risk factors-based model. Primary outcome: CVD mortality (HR null, 95% CI null, p=null).

February 6, 2026Polskie Archiwum Medycyny Wewnętrznej0 citationsOpen Access

SCORE2 and derived model based on traditional risk factors in predicting cardiovascular disease mortality. 18 years follow-up of the Polish cohort participating in the HAPIEE Study

Q: What does this research mean for the field?

The SCORE2 model predicts cardiovascular disease mortality at 9.0% in men and 5.2% in women over 18 years, confirming smoking and hypertension as significant predictors of mortality. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.CONFIRMATORY. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.SUPPORTS_CONSENSUS.

APAndrzej Pajak KSKrystyna SzafraniecMedical University of Lublin MBMartin Bobak

Key Result

SCORE2 model showed a CVD mortality of 9.0% in men and 5.2% in women over 18 years, confirming smoking and hypertension as significant predictors of mortality.

Key Points

Evaluate the effectiveness of SCORE2 and traditional risk factors in predicting cardiovascular disease mortality over 18 years.
Analyzed data from the Polish cohort in the HAPIEE Study over 18 years.
Assessed the prognostic performance of SCORE2 as a continuous measure.
Compared SCORE2 with a derived prediction model including age and traditional risk factors.
Smoking and elevated blood pressure identified as key long-term predictors of CVD mortality.
SCORE2 showed good prognostic performance comparable to traditional risk factor models.
Predictive accuracy of SCORE2 categories was lower, especially in men.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=6,780)

Multicenter

Structured PICO

Population

6,780 residents of Krakow, Poland, free of cardiovascular disease and diabetes at baseline, recruited between 2002 and 2005. Mean age 57.2 years in men and 56.6 years in women, 54% female.

Intervention

SCORE2 risk prediction model (evaluated as continuous and categorical measures) and a newly derived model based on traditional risk factors (age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol)

Outcome

Cardiovascular disease mortality over 18 years of follow-uphard clinical

SCORE2 performs well as a continuous measure for predicting long-term CVD mortality, but its categorical risk thresholds have poorer predictive accuracy, particularly in men, suggesting a need for individualized continuous risk assessment.

Main Result

Effect estimate: HR null (95% CI null)

Absolute Event Rate: 9% vs 5.2%

p-value: p=null

Limitations

The sample may not be representative of the entire Polish population.
The cohort may consist of a healthier segment of the population.
Small number of participants with extreme TC and HDL-C levels may affect findings.

Abstract

Smoking and elevated blood pressure were confirmed as major long-term predictors of CVD mortality. The prognostic performance of SCORE2 as a continuous measure was good and comparable to the derived prediction model including age and traditional risk factors. However, the predictive accuracy of SCORE2 categories was lower, particularly in men.

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Cite This Study

Pajak et al. (Tue,) conducted a cohort in Cardiovascular disease mortality (n=6,780). SCORE2 model vs. Traditional risk factors-based model was evaluated on CVD mortality (HR null, 95% CI null, p=null). SCORE2 model showed a CVD mortality of 9.0% in men and 5.2% in women over 18 years, confirming smoking and hypertension as significant predictors of mortality.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698584b78f7c464f230082ba https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.20452/pamw.17219

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