Exploratory Diagnostics of Pre-Event Signal Stability in the 2012 Flash Drought Clarity Before Confidence: Was confidence already degrading prior to the 2012 event?

This repository contains an exploratory diagnostic analysis examining signal stability prior to the 2012 U.S. flash drought using a four-week Differential Fractional Precipitation Percentile Metric (DFPPM). The work emphasizes clarity before confidence: rather than issuing forecasts or causal claims, the analysis evaluates whether local and regional diagnostic coherence showed signs of degradation before the drought’s rapid onset. Included materials comprise a technical report, annotated diagnostic figures with confidence envelopes, a full methods appendix detailing computational procedures, and a public-facing README describing interpretive scope and limitations. This study is exploratory and diagnostic in nature. It does not provide predictions, operational guidance, or decision automation. Results are intended to support interpretation, discussion, and further investigation.