Abstract Campanula hawkinsiana is an endemic species native to the south-western Balkan Peninsula. Although it is typically found on ultramafic bedrock, it also occurs on calcareous substrates. In this study, we assessed the genetic diversity and population structure of the species using ddRAD-seq data, and conducted species distribution modelling. In addition, to investigate genetics underlying the adaptive divergence of the studied populations, several FST-based analyses were performed. Population genetics revealed a notable degree of differentiation and genetic structuring among the populations or groups of populations, implying that they have been isolated for an extended period of time. Outlier-based methods did not provide evidence for a significant effect of any of the tested environmental variables on population genetic structure. Species distribution modelling showed that high-elevation areas of the species’ known range are characterized by suitable conditions, while projections for the Last Glacial Maximum indicate even more favourable conditions throughout the studied area, even at lower elevation. Genetic clustering patterns are consistent with long-term in situ persistence, suggesting that elevational migrations may explain the current diversity better than large-scale latitudinal shifts to climatically favourable areas.
Stevanoski et al. (Sat,) studied this question.