Background Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a leading cause of global mortality. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze the temporal trends in CLD prevalence among women of childbearing age (WCBA) over a 30-year period. Methods An age-period-cohort (APC) model was developed to assess the overall annual percentage change net drift (ND), % per year and the annual percentage change within distinct age groups (local drift, % per year) in CLD prevalence from 1992 to 2021. The APC model incorporated longitudinal age-specific rates, adjusting for deviations across time periods (age effects), as well as period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects). Results From 1992 to 2021, the global ND in CLD prevalence among WCBA was 0.057% per year 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.029%–0.084%, with regional variation ranging from −0.27% to 0.66%. Local drift analysis indicated that age groups with increasing prevalence were more prominent in high sociodemographic index region (SDIR), while those with decreasing prevalence were more common in low SDIR. Age effects showed consistent patterns across SDIRs, with risk increasing progressively with age. Period risks were relatively lower in low SDIR, while more adverse period risks were observed in other regions. Additionally, improvements in prevalence were seen across birth cohorts in all regions. Conclusion Over the past three decades, the global prevalence of CLD among WCBA has predominantly exhibited an adverse trend. Targeted advancements in prevention, management, and treatment of CLD are essential to mitigate relative risks for successive birth cohorts.
Chen et al. (Tue,) studied this question.