CGT - Predictability Limits in Weather Systems: The 12.1% Entropy Boundary from Information Theory | Synapse
March 2, 2026Open Access
CGT - Predictability Limits in Weather Systems: The 12.1% Entropy Boundary from Information Theory
Key Points
The study aims to determine the limits of predictability in weather systems using information theory principles.
Calculated predictable fraction using information theory.
Validated findings across five different weather phenomena.
Analyzed average predictability against 12.1% entropy boundary.
Established an entropy boundary of 12.1% for predictability.
Average predictable fraction observed at 12.6% across tested phenomena.
Explained the plateau effect in weather forecasting beyond two weeks.
Abstract
Predictable fraction = (1/φ) Y = 12. 1%. Validated across five weather phenomena with average 12. 6%. Explains why forecasting plateaus beyond ~2 weeks.