Fractal Geometry–Porosity-Coupled Mathematical Modeling of Mechanical Degradation in Low-Carbon Marine Concrete with High-Volume SCMs Under Sulfate–Chloride–Carbonate–Magnesium Attack

Marine concrete is often exposed to multiple aggressive ions, so mechanical deterioration cannot be reliably interpreted using single-ion durability concepts. This study investigates ocean-oriented concretes incorporating high contents of mineral admixtures under coupled sulfate/chloride/carbonate/magnesium actions and develops a pore-structure-based D–P dual-parameter framework linking microstructural descriptors to macroscopic peak stress and peak strain. Three binder systems were designed: ordinary Portland cement concrete (OPC), cement–silica fume concrete (CSC, 20% silica fume), and cement–silica fume–fly ash concrete (CSFC, 20% silica fume + 50% fly ash). Specimens were immersed for 12 and 24 months in four representative binary-salt solutions. Porosity evolution and pore-size-class distributions were quantified by low-field NMR, while pore complexity was characterized using multi-scale fractal dimensions. The results show that mineral admixtures generally refine the pore system and improve the integrity of fine pores; CSFC exhibits the most robust microstructural stability across the tested environments, whereas CSC shows a pronounced degradation of fine-pore structure under CE4. A second-order response surface model built on Z-score normalized fractal dimension (D) and porosity (P) achieves reliable predictability for peak strain (R2 = 0. 85) and peak stress (R2 = 0. 79). Global Sobol sensitivity analysis reveals distinct controlling mechanisms: peak strain is predominantly governed by porosity (SP = 85. 9%), whereas peak stress is controlled by the combined effects of porosity, pore complexity, and their interaction (SP = 42. 4%, SD = 19. 8%, S₃ × ₏ = 37. 8%). Local sensitivity mapping further identifies high-sensitivity regimes at extreme pore states, providing mechanistic guidance for mixture optimization. Overall, the proposed D–P framework quantitatively bridges pore volume/geometry evolution and mechanical degradation, offering a practical predictive tool for durability-oriented design of marine concretes under multi-ionic attack.