What does this research mean for the field?

A large positive income shock increases electoral turnout among the poor, while adverse income shocks and exposure to ethnic diversity dampen turnout. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.CHALLENGES_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

This study examines how income shocks and ethnic diversity affect electoral turnout in a large Italian municipality.

March 3, 2026Open Access

Who turns out to vote? a fresh look into an old question

Key Points

This study examines how income shocks and ethnic diversity affect electoral turnout in a large Italian municipality.
Utilized an individual-level administrative dataset from a large Italian municipality.
Analyzed the effects of positive and negative income shocks on voter turnout.
Assessed the impact of exposure to ethnic diversity on turnout rates among different income groups.
Positive income shocks increase turnout among poor individuals.
Negative income shocks decrease overall turnout, particularly affecting the poor and elderly.
The emergence of a populist party shifts turnout dynamics, raising turnout among poor voters and decreasing it among the rich.

Abstract

Abstract Exploiting an individual-level administrative dataset in a large Italian municipality, we investigate the impact of income shocks and exposure to ethnic diversity on electoral turnout. A large positive income shock increases turnout only among the poor, while both adverse income and diversity shocks tend to dampen turnout. Estimates are larger at the lower tail of the income distribution, where a large negative income shock reduces turnout by 7.9%, and among poor elderly people, whose turnout drops by 13.5%. The entry of a populist party possibly induces a relative increase (decrease) in turnout among the poor (rich) who suffered an income loss. (JEL D72, D31)

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