This paper examines the long-term shift in the balance of power between nation-states and transnational corporations. Using comparative growth analysis of GDP and corporate market capitalization (2000–2025), the study explores whether current trends may lead to a structural transformation of sovereignty. The paper argues that the exponential scaling dynamics of digital corporations, combined with network effects, regulatory arbitrage, and financialization, create conditions under which certain corporations may surpass medium-sized states in economic power. While not predicting the collapse of the nation-state, the study outlines three potential scenarios of institutional evolution: corporate feudalism, technocratic integration, and regulatory conflict. The paper is intended as a strategic warning model rather than a deterministic forecast.
Vladimir Stroka (Tue,) studied this question.
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