Inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernias represent a growing global surgical burden, with accelerating epidemiological impacts across Asia. This study quantifies temporal trends, geospatial disparities, and projected trajectories of hernia-related disease burdens in Asia from 1990 to 2021, extending forecasts to 2050. Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years across 48 Asian countries/territories. All estimates were calculated as absolute numbers and age-standardized rates, stratified by age, sex, location, calendar year, and Sociodemographic Index quintile. Analytical frameworks included joinpoint regression, frontier analysis, decomposition methods, geospatial inequality metrics, and age-period-cohort modeling. Burden projections to 2050 were generated using Bayesian age-period-cohort models. From 1990 to 2021, the prevalence of hernia cases in Asia increased from 8.24 million to 9.40 million, while age-standardized rates (ASR) declined by 27.59%. Concurrently, Asian incidence rose from 3.12 million to 4.26 million, with a marginal ASR increase of 0.08%. Mortality remained relatively stable, yet ASR for mortality decreased by 54.05%. Geospatial analyses identified South Asia as the region bearing the highest hernia-related burden. Projections to 2050 indicate heterogeneous ASR trajectories across Asian regions, underscoring persistent inequalities in healthcare infrastructure and surgical capacity. This study reveals a dual challenge in Asia's hernia burden: a rising absolute number of cases alongside declining age-standardized rates, with significant geographical disparities placing a disproportionate load on low-resource settings. Males and older adults remain at highest risk. Projections indicate a potential worsening burden in certain developed regions, underscoring the urgent need for targeted public health interventions focused on these high-risk demographics and underserved areas.
Zheng et al. (Fri,) studied this question.