What question did this study set out to answer?

To determine whether South Africa's rising crime rates are genuinely increasing or are a result of improved crime reporting mechanisms.

March 10, 2026Open Access

IMPROVED CRIME REPORTING: Is South Africa’s crime wave a statistical illusion?

Key Points

To determine whether South Africa's rising crime rates are genuinely increasing or are a result of improved crime reporting mechanisms.
Analysis of police statistics before and after the establishment of a democratic government in 1994.
Comparison of trends in commonly underreported and frequently reported crimes.
Examination of public reporting behavior in response to police performance.
Underreported crimes are increasing, suggesting they were previously not reported.
Reported crimes, such as murder and car theft, are actually declining.
The increase in crime reporting correlates with improvements in police performance.

Abstract

Is crime in South Africa really on the increase, or is the spiralling crime rate a product of improved reporting? It was not unexpected that the arrival, in 1994, of a democratic government should lead to a dramatic increase in crime reporting. Police statistics show that commonly underreported crimes have been going up, while those most likely to be reported (murder, car theft, and business burglary) are in decline. This suggests that improved performance by the police (which encourages reporting by the public) may be responsible for the ‘increase’ in crime in recent years.

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