Climate change, specifically sea level rise (SLR), poses a significant threat to coastal communities. Effective countermeasures against climate change require addressing existing issues and proactively assessing potential risks and associated damage to prevent, respond to, and mitigate losses. This study estimates the impacts of thermosteric SLR on agricultural production and the corresponding anticipated production losses in coastal nations of the Asia-Pacific region by the year 2100. The analysis uses the MIROC6 global climate model, TPXO10 tidal model, LUH2 land-use datasets, and the FAO global crop database. The results revealed that a vast area exceeding 300, 000 km2 is susceptible to inundation. Depending on the evaluated scenarios, approximately 100.5–115.9 thousand km2 of croplands, representing about 2% of the total cultivated area, are projected to be inundated. Annual crops, particularly cereals, an important staple food in the region, will be the most affected. Inundation-driven production losses are projected to amount to millions of tonnes, resulting in economic losses of between 27–29 billion USD by 2100. Cereals alone are estimated to incur substantial economic losses, amounting to approximately 13.3 billion USD. Moreover, a projected loss of 30.9–36.4 million tonnes of cereals poses a serious threat to regional food security, potentially affecting approximately 180.7–213.3 million people who may face cereal shortages. Mapping vulnerable areas, identifying their specific characteristics, and assessing potential impacts will enable policymakers to identify priority areas and promote further research into local conditions and resource availability. These efforts will support the proactive development of adaptation strategies in response to climate and food insecurity risks.
BUI et al. (Wed,) studied this question.