Abstract Peatlands store about one‐third of total global soil carbon. Vegetation composition strongly regulates peatland carbon dynamics. Global warming and climate‐driven ecohydrological changes are expected to alter peatland vegetation composition, necessitating accurate simulation of vegetation dynamics to predict future fate of peatland carbon. We incorporated six plant functional types (PFTs) into the ORCHIDEE‐PEAT model to represent bryophytes (mosses), C3 graminoids (sedges and grasses), boreal broadleaf deciduous shrubs, boreal needleleaf evergreen trees, tropical evergreen and raingreen (water‐driven deciduous) trees growing in peatlands. The introduction and elimination of each PFT in response to bioclimatic conditions, as well as sapling establishment, growth, mortality, and competition among PFTs, are explicitly modeled. Simulated vegetation distributions align well with site‐level observations from West Siberian wetlands, where extensive vegetation composition measurements are available for model evaluation. The model slightly overestimated gross primary productivity (GPP) across 60 sites. Evaluation using global satellite‐derived land cover, leaf area index and GPP data was encouraging, though challenges lie in the lack of observational data specific to peatlands. From 1901 to 2020, simulated tropical peatland vegetation composition remains relatively stable. In northern peatlands, as a result of warming and declining water table, bryophyte and C3 graminoid cover decrease by 0.2 (13%) and 0.1 (13%) million km 2 , respectively, while shrub and tree cover increase by 0.3 (75%) and 0.03 (2%) million km 2 , respectively. The impacts of these vegetation shift on peatland carbon balance can be explored in future studies using the model, which integrates peatland vegetation dynamics with peatland‐specific hydrology and carbon cycling.
Qiu et al. (Sun,) studied this question.