Development of a Disaster Welfare Simulation to Enable Policy Consideration

Introduction: Japan faces a high risk of disasters, and its aging population has led to an increase in vulnerable individuals, such as the elderly and people with disabilities. During disasters, these individuals often fail to receive adequate support, leading to deteriorating health and functional decline. Furthermore, many welfare facilities supporting them are privately operated, making it difficult to sustain services due to facility damage or caregivers’ inability to work. This situation exacerbates the health risks for vulnerable populations who require welfare services but are unable to receive sufficient support. To address these issues, it is crucial to examine policies that ensure efficient and sustainable welfare service provision. This study aimed to develop a simulation model for systematically planning disaster welfare support for vulnerable populations, enhancing the accuracy of policy consideration. Methods: This study developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate individualized care plans, coordination among welfare facilities, and collaboration with medical institutions. The model incorporated human resource allocation, shelter operations, and the timing of supply provision across multiple scenarios designed to support vulnerable populations during disasters. Regional characteristics and policy implementation timing were considered to evaluate the scenarios’ effectiveness from multiple perspectives. This approach enabled a comprehensive evaluation of broad support activities, including coordination between welfare facilities and medical institutions, efficient resource allocation, supply provision, and shelter management. Results: The simulation model evaluated multiple scenarios for human resource allocation and shelter coordination, quantitatively assessing the impact of geographical conditions and policy timing on vulnerable populations. By applying statistical and optimization methods, the study identified optimal parameters for the simulation, enabling the design of effective disaster welfare policies. Conclusion: The developed simulation model is a valid tool for evaluating the effectiveness and validity of disaster welfare policy considerations. It is also applicable for education and training, offering broad utility in practical settings.