Introduction: Floods rank among the most frequent and destructive natural disasters globally, presenting severe threats to human life, infrastructure, and economic stability. In Poland, existing flood risk management strategies often neglect the complexities of self-evacuation, particularly in areas with a 1% annual flood occurrence. This study seeks to fill this gap by evaluating the effectiveness of self-evacuation via private vehicles in flood-prone regions, aiming to enhance emergency response strategies and mitigate the adverse consequences of flooding. Methods: A comprehensive four-step traffic modelling approach was applied to simulate self-evacuation in flood-prone regions. The model integrated national traffic flow data alongside responses from questionnaire surveys conducted among residents in flood-risk areas across Poland. By utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and traffic engineering tools, a high-resolution network model was developed, encompassing both main and local roads to provide an accurate assessment of traffic distribution. The analysis considered various scenarios, including pre-flood and during-flood conditions, with or without existing commuter traffic, and evacuation travel time thresholds of eight and 15 minutes to designated shelters. Results: The analysis showed that evacuating before a flood is more effective than during the flood, as a larger portion of the population can reach safety within the set travel time limits. Evacuation routes were significantly hindered by limited road capacity, bottlenecks, and natural barriers, especially under active flood conditions. The model identified key sections of the road network at risk of congestion during evacuation and offered valuable insights into the efficiency of shelters at different time intervals. Conclusion: Effective flood risk management in Poland requires integrating self-evacuation strategies with advanced traffic modelling. This study emphasizes proactive evacuation planning and stronger infrastructure resilience to reduce flood impacts. Key recommendations include optimizing evacuation routes and improving communication for timely evacuations. Acknowledgment: This research was funded by the National Science Centre, Poland, under the OPUS call in the Weave programme 2023/51/I/HS4/00255.
Wiśniewski et al. (Sun,) studied this question.