Resilience and Adaptation in Prolonged Conflict: A Longitudinal Analysis of Ukrainian Responses During the War with Russia

Introduction: The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine that emerged in February 2022 transitioned in mid-2023 from an “existential war” into a “war of attrition.” A distinct division within society marks this new phase. On one side are those actively engaged in the war effort, and on the other are individuals who have become passive or indifferent regarding the ongoing war as the new normal. Methods: The longitudinal study assessed the impact of a prolonged conflict on resilience and coping mechanisms, based on two samples (T1 – July 2022 N = 1001; T2 – November 2023 N = 2247). Data were collected through internet panels’ respondents who completed a structured quantitative questionnaire. Results: A significant decrease was found in three types of resilience (individual, community, and societal), hope, sense of danger, perceived threats, and PTSD symptoms during the second versus the first measurement. The best predictor of societal resilience was government support. The best predictor of individual resilience was community resilience. The best predictor of PTSD symptoms was perceived threats. The predictors explain 68% (T1) and 60% (T2) of societal resilience, 19% (T1 and T2) of individual resilience, and 58% (T1) and 12% (T2) of PTSD symptoms. Conclusion: Findings suggest that 'routinization’ of an ongoing emergency is formulated, allowing the population to coexist with the adversity and accept the war as the “new normalcy.” Nonetheless, the future is perceived as uncertain, leading to a decline in hope. Strategies that focus on bolstering resilience during adversities should consist of social support mechanisms that enhance the population’s hope and morale and build the government’s trust and support.