Prospective head-to-head comparison of routine non-invasive scores for predicting severe cirrhosis-related morbidity in the general population

Key Points

• This research aims to compare various non-invasive blood-based risk scores for predicting severe morbidity related to cirrhosis.
• Conducted a systematic review to identify eligible risk scores from liver blood tests.
• Evaluated risk scores in a community-based cohort from the UK Biobank.
• Assessed discrimination using the Wolbers C-index and various area under the curve (AUC) metrics.
• Identified 12 eligible risk scores, including 10 novel models and standard scores (APRI, FIB-4).
• 10-year cumulative incidence of severe cirrhosis-related morbidity was 0.39% (1,498 events).
• LiverRisk and CORE showed the highest discrimination with C-indices of 0.847 and 0.839, respectively.