• The effect of MSW generation and composition changes on MSW properties was studied. • The evolution of MSW influences fossil and biogenic CO2 emissions from WtE plants. • Integration of CCS in WtE plants can allow for negative CO2 emissions. • CO2 emissions per energy content of MSW does not change significantly. Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 requires significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This study investigates how future changes in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation and composition may affect MSW physical and chemical properties, including fossil and biogenic CO 2 emissions from Waste-to-Energy (WtE) plants and their implications for plant operation, possible integration with carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as waste incineration taxation. WtE plants are major urban single-point emitters of CO 2 . Their integration with CCS can help cities cut their direct emissions and enable negative emissions due to the high biogenic content of MSW. A model was developed to estimate WtE-relevant MSW properties based on advanced waste compositional analysis, using Oslo Municipality as a case study. Three scenarios were explored: Current Road (business as usual), Circular Road (improved sorting) and Frugal Road (waste reduction). Results show a decrease in MSW incineration by 2035 across all scenarios (between 19 and 62%), which was partially responsible for the reduction in the total CO 2 emissions (between 16 and 55%). In all scenarios, the energy required by an amine-based CCS process (to capture 90% of CO 2 emissions) was estimated to amount to about one third of the energy present in the incinerated waste. In Norway, the fossil CO 2 emission tax will increase towards 2035, possibly offsetting some of the CCS costs. This study can help waste management companies understand how the evolution of MSW may affect WtE plant operation, CCS deployment and future waste incineration taxation.
Magnanelli et al. (Wed,) studied this question.
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