Can digital inclusive finance ensure food security while achieving low-carbon transformation in agricultural development? Evidence from China

The failure of the global food system to produce food in a sustainable way needs to change urgently, and a solid push to harmonize low-carbon food production with stable supply security is the right direction in which modern agriculture must evolve, but it is more difficult for large food-producing countries, and finding the right practices or systems to help policymakers or producers address this dilemma is critical. This requires political will, increased financing and top-level design. Digital inclusive finance (DIFI) embodies the financial concept of a community of human destiny, and it is worth examining whether this more inclusive and comprehensive financial service can shoulder the “responsibility” of “ensuring food security and reducing carbon emissions” in agriculture. This paper takes China's grain production system as an example, measures the coordinated development level of food production ensuring supply and reducing carbon emissions, and then analyzes the overall and regional characteristics of it. It is found that the coordinated development trend of China's food production ensuring supply and reducing carbon emissions is relatively stable during 2011–2020, fluctuating slightly above and below 0.9, and the central region has the highest level of coordinated development. The empirical results show that DIFI has led to a 4.3 percentage point increase in the level of coordinated development of food production ensuring supply and reducing carbon emissions during the decade, showing a stronger spatial spillover effect on neighboring regions than the local effect. At the same time, in the research of regional division in China, the impact of DIFI on the level of coordinated development of food production ensuring supply and reducing carbon emissions varies across regions, with typical uneven characteristics, and the promotion effect is more significant in the central and northern regions of China. Overall, this paper provides a simple tool for policy makers or producers to understand the balance between guaranteed output and low-carbon development of agricultural production activities. This paper will provide a methodological basis for assessing and standardizing low-carbon agricultural practices, innovating financial development models and systems, and promoting sustainable agriculture.