Understanding Uncertainties in Future Projections of Seasonal Tropical Precipitation

Abstract Projected changes in regional seasonal precipitation due to climate change are highly uncertain, with model disagreement on even the sign of change in many regions. Using a 20-member CMIP5 ensemble under the RCP8.5 scenario, the intermodel uncertainty of the spatial patterns of projected end-of-twenty-first-century change in precipitation is found not to be strongly influenced by uncertainty in global mean temperature change. In the tropics, both the ensemble mean and intermodel uncertainty of regional precipitation change are found to be predominantly related to spatial shifts in convection and convergence, associated with processes such as sea surface temperature (SST) pattern change and land–sea thermal contrast change. The authors hypothesize that the zonal-mean seasonal migration of these shifts is driven by 1) the nonlinear spatial response of convection to SST changes and 2) a general movement of convection from land to ocean in response to SST increases. Assessment of tropical precipitation model projections over East Africa highlights the complexity of regional rainfall changes. Thermodynamically driven moisture increases determine the magnitude of the long rains (March–May) ensemble mean precipitation change in this region, whereas model uncertainty in spatial shifts of convection accounts for almost all of the intermodel uncertainty. Moderate correlations are found across models between the long rains precipitation change and patterns of SST change in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Further analysis of the capability of models to represent present-day SST–rainfall links, and any relationship with model projections, may contribute to constraining the uncertainty in projected East Africa long rains precipitation.