Abstract This paper introduces the Delayed Cost Effect (DCE), a conceptual framework describing a cross-domain systemic phenomenon wherein decision-makers acting under conditions of incomplete information generate costs that do not manifest at the point of decision but emerge at a future time in forms that are difficult or impossible to reverse. The paper further identifies a three-layer Ratchet Structure inherent to DCE: initial decisions generate delayed costs; subsequent corrective measures cannot eliminate the original costs but only partially offset them; and corrective actions themselves may embed new cycles of delayed cost. Three case studies are examined: the rise of the petroleum industry, climate change and the limitations of current mitigation strategies, and the large-scale deployment of artificial intelligence. The paper argues that DCE supplements and extends existing concepts including Externality, Delay Discounting, and Path Dependency, and concludes by advocating for the institutionalization of Delayed Cost Awareness as a prerequisite framework in policy formulation and technology governance.
L.K. Liu (Fri,) studied this question.