Probabilistic Seismic Demand Model for California Highway Bridges

A performance-based seismic design method enables designers to evaluate a graduated suite of performance levels for a structure in a given hazard environment. The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center is developing a framework for performance-based seismic design. One component of this framework is a probabilistic seismic demand model for a class of structures in an urban region with a well-defined seismic hazard exposure. A probabilistic seismic demand model relates ground motion intensity measures to structural demand measures. It is formulated by statistically analyzing the results of a suite of nonlinear time-history analyses of typical structures under expected earthquakes in the urban region. An example of a probabilistic seismic demand model for typical highway bridges in California is presented. It was formulated using a portfolio of 80 recorded ground motions and a portfolio of 108 bridges generated by varying bridge design parameters. The sensitivity of the demand models to variation of bridge design parameters is also discussed. Trends derived from this sensitivity study provide designers with a unique tool to assess the effect of seismicity and design parameters on bridge performance.