Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the growth potential of Indonesia’s digital sukuk market by analyzing the roles of behavioral and technological drivers (product innovation, online trading platforms (OTPs) and public trust) and the moderating influence of institutional factors, including economic uncertainty and regulation. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative, explanatory research design was used, using survey data from 320 respondents, comprising investors, issuers and users of OTPs. The model was tested through Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling with SmartPLS 4, evaluating six main effects and six moderating paths. Findings The results of this study indicate that OTPs and product innovation significantly drive digital sukuk growth, with online platforms emerging as the strongest determinant. Public trust does not exhibit a direct effect. Economic uncertainty weakens the impact of product innovation while marginally strengthening the role of online platforms. Regulatory support significantly amplifies the effect of product innovation but does not moderate other relationships. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power. Research limitations/implications This study relies on cross-sectional and perceptual data from a single country, which may limit generalizability and causal inference. Nevertheless, the findings clarify boundary conditions for technology adoption theories in Islamic finance under varying regulatory and macroeconomic environments. Practical implications Policymakers and regulators should prioritize robust digital trading infrastructure alongside supportive regulatory frameworks for sukuk innovation. Issuers and platform providers are advised to focus on platform quality, security and innovation rather than relying solely on trust-building narratives. Social implications The development of digital sukuk supported by effective platforms and regulation can enhance financial inclusion, improve Islamic financial literacy and broaden access to Shariah-compliant investment instruments. Originality/value This study develops an integrated behavioral–technological and institutional framework to explain digital sukuk growth in emerging Islamic capital markets. By embedding Technology Acceptance Model constructs within a Stimulus–Organism–Response logic and incorporating regulatory support and economic uncertainty as institutional moderators, this study extends existing theories by demonstrating how digital infrastructure and innovation translate into market growth under varying institutional conditions. The findings offer new empirical insights into the conditional role of trust and regulation during periods of digital transition and market volatility.
Darmawan et al. (Thu,) studied this question.