Squaring the circle? When circular economy meets post-growth

Abstract The European Union has placed the Circular Economy (CE) as a central strategy to advance fair and sustainable GDP growth. Yet, the mechanisms through which CE could decouple growth from social and environmental harms remain underexplored. This study assesses the macroeconomic, social, and ecological implications of CE policies in France by applying an extended version of the EUROGREEN model. The model is grounded in Ecological Macroeconomics, calibrated on historical data, and simulated over the period 2014–2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) baseline. A “sequential scenario” methodology is adopted to evaluate alternative CE pathways: (i) a Techno-Optimistic Circularity (TOC) scenario featuring substantial improvements in material efficiency and recycling; (ii) two socially-oriented circularity scenarios that combine moderate technological progress with innovative social policies like reduced working time (C2C) and a Job Guarantee(JG) financed through a wealth tax (SEC); and (iii) a Post-Growth scenario (SCD) characterised by lower consumption and material throughput, supported by a Piketty-style financial wealth tax. Simulation results reveal persistent trade-offs between economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. Growth-centred technological and social circularity scenarios do not achieve sufficient levels of decoupling between economic activity and material use, whereas post-growth pathways deliver balanced outcomes across material extraction, employment, and inequality. Overall, simulation outcomes reveal that growth-oriented circularity strategies cannot combine social equity and long-term sustainability goals. Instead, it seems that integrated policy packages combining technological innovation, social policies, and consumption reduction can reconcile CE ambitions with the pursuit of well-being within planetary boundaries.