Association between Estimated Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Abnormal Glucose Risk: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a predictor of chronic disease that is impractical to routinely measure in primary care settings. We used a new estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (eCRF) algorithm that uses information routinely documented in electronic health care records to predict abnormal blood glucose incidence. METHODS: Participants were adults (17.8% female) 20-81 years old at baseline from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study between 1979 and 2006. eCRF was based on sex, age, body mass index, resting heart rate, resting blood pressure, and smoking status. CRF was measured by maximal treadmill testing. Cox proportional hazards regression models were established using eCRF and CRF as independent variables predicting the abnormal blood glucose incidence while adjusting for covariates (age, sex, exam year, waist girth, heavy drinking, smoking, and family history of diabetes mellitus and lipids). RESULTS: Of 8602 participants at risk at baseline, 3580 (41.6%) developed abnormal blood glucose during an average of 4.9 years follow-up. The average eCRF of 12.03 ± 1.75 METs was equivalent to the CRF of 12.15 ± 2.40 METs within the 10% equivalence limit. In fully adjusted models, the estimated risks were the same (HRs = 0.96), eCRF (95% CIs = 0.93-0.99), and CRF (95% CI of 0.94-0.98). Each 1-MET increase was associated with a 4% reduced risk. CONCLUSIONS: Higher eCRF is associated with a lower risk of abnormal glucose. eCRF can be a vital sign used for research and prevention.