Background Liver cancer is a significant public health threat worldwide, yet data on its burden and trends are limited. This study aims to evaluate the global burden of liver cancer among global populations from 1990 to 2021, and to project its change to 2040. Methods In this observational study, population-based registry data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. The database covers 204 countries and territories, ensuring global applicability of the results. Age-standardized rates of incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated per 100–000 population. Estimated rates of disease burden were calculated for 2040. Results In 2021, global incident cases of liver cancer were 211460 (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis NASH-related), 1031830 (hepatitis B virus HBV-related), 770310 (hepatitis C virus HCV-related), 497720 (alcohol-related), 20240 (hepatoblastoma), and 114460 (other causes-related). HBV-related liver cancer exhibited the highest age-standardized rate of incidence (2.62 per 100–000 population; 95% uncertainty interval UI, 2.15-3.19), deaths (2.30 per 100–000 population; 95% UI, 1.89-2.81), and DALYs (71.83 per 100–000 population; 95% UI, 59.65-87.25). In 2021, the 65–69 age group bore the heaviest burden, dominated by HBV-related cases. Higher sociodemographic indices correlated with greater burden for most subtypes. High-income Asia Pacific and East Asia had the highest regional burdens. Nationally, Mongolia, Taiwan (Province of China), Monaco, and Mali were most affected. Cross-country inequalities persisted. Projections to 2040 predict rising burden for all subtypes except hepatoblastoma, with NASH-related incident cases increasing by 51.97%. Conclusions The global disease burden of all liver cancer subtypes, except hepatoblastoma, is increasing. There is an urgent need to strengthen interdisciplinary collaboration and integrate public health measures with clinical interventions to address the increasingly severe challenge of liver cancer.
Xie et al. (Wed,) studied this question.