Smallholder farmers’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate risks: a case study of a watershed community in Kenya

Abstract Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa face increasing vulnerability to climate variability, yet their adaptive responses remain uneven and poorly understood across different agroecological zones. This study investigates rural farmers’ perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate risks, along with their determinants, in the Migori River watershed, Kenya. Data from 318 randomly sampled households were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and logistic regression to examine the factors influencing climate change perceptions, coping mechanisms, and adaptation strategies. Results indicate that over 90% of farmers observed rising temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns—perceptions that align with long-term climate trends over the past six decades (1964–2024). Perceived climate impacts varied spatially, with 89.6% of downstream households reporting more floods and 94.3% more droughts and experiencing the most severe agricultural impacts. Smallholder farmers primarily coped with climate-induced shocks through casual labor, remittances, and reliance on stored food or savings, reflecting short-term, survival-oriented responses. Logistic regression reveals that access to climate information, education, income, and farm size significantly influence both risk perception and adaptation decisions. For instance, farmers with tertiary education were over twice as likely to adopt improved seeds, fertilizers, and conservation agriculture. Despite widespread adoption of drought-tolerant crops and conservation agriculture, adaptation in the area remained constrained primarily by unaffordable inputs, limited extension services, and restricted access to credit and climate information, all of which varied significantly across zones. These insights highlight the need for designing targeted interventions that account for spatially differentiated vulnerabilities and strengthen the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers.