TRENDS AND GROWTH PATTERN OF GST REVENUE IN INDIA: An empirical analysis with advanced econometric models

The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India on July 1, 2017, marked a paradigm shift in the country’s indirect tax architecture by consolidating multiple central and state-level taxes into a unified framework. Among the most comprehensive fiscal reforms since independence, GST was envisioned to enhance revenue buoyancy, strengthen tax compliance, promote economic formalization, and foster cooperative fiscal federalism. By replacing a fragmented and cascading tax structure with a destination-based value-added tax system, the reform aimed to improve efficiency, transparency, and interstate trade integration within the Indian economy. This study examines the trends and growth patterns of GST revenue in India from FY2017–18 to FY2024–25 using a structured time-series analytical framework. Utilizing secondary data derived from authoritative government publications and budget documents. And reports of the GST Council, the research analyses annual and monthly GST collections, growth trajectories, and revenue buoyancy relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study further evaluates the structural composition of GST revenues—comprising CGST, SGST, IGST, and Compensation Cess—to assess the evolving dynamics of fiscal consolidation and tax base expansion