Ferry travel as an activity: Demand forecasting for cruise ferries

Passenger Ferries are a vital component of transport systems in archipelagic and coastal regions, as well as in countries with numerous inhabited islands. However, in certain regions, passenger ferry services have evolved one step beyond their pure transport functionality: operators are also emphasizing on offering to customers “mini cruises”, with several amenities onboard, which create significant additional revenues beyond those generated by tickets. Aim of this research is to assess the demand for cruise ferries, a hybrid between ro-ro passenger ferries and cruise ships. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to forecast demand for cruise ferries in a region where they do not yet operate. For this purpose, a Stated Preference survey was designed and administered to the general public, and a Mixed Hybrid Latent Variable Logit Model was estimated to capture both observable attributes and unobserved psychological factors influencing mode choice. Results indicate that Cost and Travel time are among the key determinants of mode choice, as expected, but also other factors, such as environmental performance rating of sea travel options as well as individuals' predisposition towards Travel (measured through a latent variable) are important in eliciting the choice behavior of passengers. Results of this study are offering valuable insights to various stakeholders of the passenger shipping industry and may support the establishment and development of cruise ferry services in new areas, evidence-based policymaking as well as the design of efficient and quality ferry services that better meet passenger needs.