Response of Alum Rock springs to the October 30, 2007 Alum Rock earthquake and implications for the origin of increased discharge after earthquakes

Abstract The origins of increased stream flow and spring discharge following earthquakes have been the subject of controversy, in large part because there are many models to explain observations and few measurements suitable for distinguishing between hypotheses. On October 30, 2007 a magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred near the Alum Rock springs, California, USA. Within a day we documented a several‐fold increase in discharge. Over the following year, we have monitored a gradual return towards pre‐earthquake properties, but for the largest springs there appears to be a permanent increase in discharge. The Alum Rock springs discharge waters that are a mixture between modern (shallow) meteoric water and old (deep) connate waters expelled by regional transpression. After the earthquake, there was a small and temporary decrease in the fraction of connate water in the largest springs. Accompanying this geochemical change was a small (1–2°C) temperature decrease. Combined with the rapid response, this implies that the increased discharge has a shallow origin. Increased discharge at these springs occurs both for earthquakes that cause static volumetric expansion and for those that cause contraction, supporting models in which dynamic strains are responsible for the subsurface changes that cause flow to increase. We make a quantitative comparison between the observed changes and model predictions for three types of models: (i) a permanent increase in permeability; (ii) an increase in permeability followed by a gradual decrease to its pre‐earthquake value; and (iii) an increase of hydraulic head in the groundwater system discharging at the springs. We show that models in which the permeability of the fracture system feeding the springs increases after the earthquake are in general consistent with the changes in discharge. The postseismic decrease in discharge could either reflect the groundwater system adjusting to the new, higher permeability or a gradual return of permeability to pre‐earthquake values; the available data do not allow us to distinguish between these two scenarios. However, the response of these springs to another earthquake will provide critical constraints on the changes that occur in the subsurface and should permit a test of all three types of models.