Measuring the Critical Influence Factors for Predicting Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Expanding Megacities by XGBoost

CO2 is the main greenhouse gas. Urban spatial development, land use, and so on may be affected by CO2 and climate change. The main questions studied in this paper are as follows: What are the drivers of CO2 emissions of expanding megacities? How can they be analyzed from different perspectives? Do the results differ for megacities at different stages of development? Based on the XGBoost model, this paper explored the complex factors affecting CO2 emissions by using data of four Chinese megacities, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing, from 2003 to 2017. The main findings are as follows: The XGBoost model has better applicability and accuracy in predicting carbon emissions of expanding megacities, with root mean square error (RMSE) as low as 0.036. Under the synergistic effect of multiple factors, population, land size, and gross domestic product are still the primary driving forces of CO2 emissions. Population density and population become more important in the single-factor analysis. The key drivers of CO2 emissions in megacities at respective developmental stages are different. This paper provides methods and tools for accurately predicting CO2 emissions and measuring the critical drivers. Furthermore, it could provide decision support for megacities to make targeted carbon-emission-reduction strategies based on their own developmental stages.