The response of bird populations to habitat loss

Environmental change through altered climate and land use could have a severe impact on bird populations. Predicting the consequences for the size of bird populations is one of the crucial problems for their conservation. We show how a population model based on the behaviour of individuals can be used to predict the consequences of habitat loss. For a wide range of conditions, loss of either wintering or breeding habitat results in population reduction. The approach is then extended to consider the impact of habitat loss in the wintering area on bird species with complex migratory systems. This shows that ‘knock‐on’ effects may occur, so that habitat loss in a wintering area may affect populations which did not initially use that area. The ability to alter migration routes in response to environmental change may be crucial to the future viability of populations. Using a simple model combining genetics and population dynamics, we show that aspects of the biology of a species may affect whether or not its migration strategy is flexible enough to shift in response to habitat change. Some species may be able to adopt new migration routes and avoid the catastrophic consequences of habitat loss in traditional wintering areas; however, other species may lack this flexibility and may suffer severe population declines as a consequence.