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The authors explore the role of hubs (people with an exceptionally large number of social ties) in diffusion and adoption. Using data on a large network with multiple adoptions, they identify two types of hubs—innovative and follower hubs. Contrary to recent arguments, hubs tend to adopt earlier in the diffusion process, even though they are not necessarily innovative. Although innovative hubs have a greater impact on the speed of the adoption process, follower hubs have a greater impact on market size (total number of adoptions). Importantly, a small sample of hubs offers accurate success versus failure predictions early in the diffusion process.
Goldenberg et al. (Tue,) studied this question.