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Why do some blocks have more crime, or their residents have higher fear levels, than other blocks? In an effort to answer this question we proposed a model that incorporated physical defensible space features, local social ties, and territorial functioning. The model was tested using data from a multistage, stratified sample of 687 Baltimore households on 63 blocks. At each household, surveys were completed and on-site physical features were photographed and subsequently rated. Records of police activity on each block were also obtained. Our model explained significant portions of crimes of violence to persons (18%) and block fear (37%). It was also able to predict a significant amount (13%) of the variation in individual-level fear. At the block level: defensible space features dampened crime and fear but not as strongly as expected; and local social ties dampened crime and fear directly, and indirectly via an enhancement of territorial functioning. A model predicting individual fear levels, controlling for block context, was also supported. Our successful modeling of block dynamics suggests that these entities may profitably be treated as small-scale social units or groups. The pattern of findings has also confirmed suggestions made by others that physical factors alone cannot be relied on to preserve local order and feelings of security. Finally, the block-level linkages between local social ties and territorial attitudes clarify how territorial attitudes reflect, and may contribute to, the development of group-based norms regarding appropriate behaviors in on-block settings.
Taylor et al. (Thu,) studied this question.