Cyber Posturing and the Offense-Defense Balance

For some realists, cyber warfare is ‘old wine in new bottles’, with marginal added value. This misses the larger possibilities for political/military chain reactions that cyber warfare may prompt, possibly leading to armed conflict. This article utilizes Offense-Defense theory to appraise the influence of cyber warfare on international security and the prospects for conflict. Offense-Defense theory, as applied here, better explains the relationship between technological innovation and international politics, and leads to different conclusions from other realist approaches. Redefining the Offense-Defense balance to accommodate cyberspace leads to an emphasis on the offensive advantages of cyber capabilities. The offensive and defensive cyber postures of China, Russia, the United States, and NATO are examined here to empirically assess the role of cyber warfare in security policy. Evidence shows that innovations in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) allow states to take greater risks and adopt more vigilant or offensive positions toward adversaries. Cyber capabilities do not cause armed conflict, but make decisions to escalate easier and cheaper. A strategic enabler that provides attackers greater freedom of action, cyber warfare is becoming a necessary condition for the conduct of war, even if it is not a sufficient one.