Determining Future Travel Behavior from Past Travel Experience and Perceptions of Risk and Safety

This study examined the influences of past international travel experience, types of risk associated with international travel, and the overall degree of safety felt during interna tional travel on individuals' likelihood of travel to various geographic regions on their next international vacation trip or avoidance of those regions due to perceived risk. Informa tion integration theory and protection motivation theory served as the theoretical framework for the study. A mail sur vey sent to 500 international travelers achieved a 48% re sponse rate. Nonresponse bias was tested with telephone in terviews. Data were analyzed using cross tabulations and logistic regression. Results revealed that past travel experi ence to specific regions both increases the intention to travel there again and decreases the intention to avoid areas, par ticularly risky areas. Perceived risks and safety were both found to be stronger predictors of avoiding regions than of planning to visit them.