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The migration crisis remains the most pressing issue in the Mediterranean vector of Italy's foreign policy. The article examines Italy's strategy of externalizing migration control during the period 2022-2024, implemented by Georgia Meloni's government through cooperation with third countries. The focus of the analysis is on three key areas: traditional partnership with Libya (extension of the 2017 Memorandum), a new deterrence model with Tunisia (EU-Tunisia agreement 2023), and a radical experiment with Albania (extraterritorial asylum processing centers). The aim of the work is to assess the effectiveness, legal risks, and ethical implications of these mechanisms in the context of a record increase in arrivals in 2023 (157,000) and a sharp decline in 2024 (66,000, -58%). A qualitative analysis of three ISPI reports (2022-2024) and a comparative-historical method are applied to study the evolution of agreements within a systemic approach. Scientific novelty: for the first time a comprehensive comparison of the three models of externalization over Meloni's three years in power is conducted, revealing the phenomenon of "hybrid migration" (legal entry into Libya illegal crossing) as a key factor in the decrease of arrivals in 2024. Key conclusions are that: the 58% decrease is a result of the shift in flows (60% Libya), rather than the effectiveness of the policy; cooperation with Libya/Tunisia is associated with systemic violations of migrants' rights; the Albanian project is blocked by courts due to legal incompatibility with EU law; externalization ignores Italy's need for legal labor migration. It is recommended to move towards a balanced policy: reforming the asylum system, expanding legal channels, and prioritizing human rights in agreements with third countries.
Olga Anatolevna Glubokaya (Sat,) studied this question.