A Power Analysis of the Conditional Randomization Test and Knockoffs

In many scientific problems, researchers try to relate a response variable Y to a set of potential explanatory variables X = (X₁, , Xₚ), and start by trying to identify variables that contribute to this relationship. In statistical terms, this goal can be posed as trying to identify Xⱼ's upon which Y is conditionally dependent. Sometimes it is of value to simultaneously test for each j, which is more commonly known as variable selection. The conditional randomization test (CRT) and model-X knockoffs are two recently proposed methods that respectively perform conditional independence testing and variable selection by, for each Xⱼ, computing any test statistic on the data and assessing that test statistic's significance by comparing it to test statistics computed on synthetic variables generated using knowledge of X's distribution. Our main contribution is to analyze their power in a high-dimensional linear model where the ratio of the dimension p and the sample size n converge to a positive constant. We give explicit expressions of the asymptotic power of the CRT, variable selection with CRT p-values, and model-X knockoffs, each with a test statistic based on either the marginal covariance, the least squares coefficient, or the lasso. One useful application of our analysis is the direct theoretical comparison of the asymptotic powers of variable selection with CRT p-values and model-X knockoffs; in the instances with independent covariates that we consider, the CRT provably dominates knockoffs. We also analyze the power gain from using unlabeled data in the CRT when limited knowledge of X's distribution is available, and the power of the CRT when samples are collected retrospectively.