Exploiting longer cycles for link prediction in signed networks

We consider the problem of link prediction in signed networks. Such networks arise on the web in a variety of ways when users can implicitly or explicitly tag their relationship with other users as positive or negative. The signed links thus created reflect social attitudes of the users towards each other in terms of friendship or trust. Our first contribution is to show how any quantitative measure of social imbalance in a network can be used to derive a link prediction algorithm. Our framework allows us to reinterpret some existing algorithms as well as derive new ones. Second, we extend the approach of Leskovec et al. (2010) by presenting a supervised machine learning based link prediction method that uses features derived from longer cycles in the network. The supervised method outperforms all previous approaches on 3 networks drawn from sources such as Epinions, Slashdot and Wikipedia. The supervised approach easily scales to these networks, the largest of which has 132k nodes and 841k edges. Most real-world networks have an overwhelmingly large proportion of positive edges and it is therefore easy to get a high overall accuracy at the cost of a high false positive rate. We see that our supervised method not only achieves good accuracy for sign prediction but is also especially effective in lowering the false positive rate.