Identity-based political inequality and protest: The dynamic relationship between political power and protest in the Middle East and North Africa

In this study, I evaluate the effect of identity-based political inequalities on the probability of nonviolent and violent resistance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). During the Arab Spring, many states with higher levels of ethnic and religious political inequalities experienced lengthy resistance movements and violence, while states with lower levels of political inequalities largely experienced less volatility. I find support for my expectations using data spanning 1960–2011. Not only do results suggest that in MENA states with higher levels of identity-based political inequalities experience more conflict, but results from a global analysis suggest that this relationship is particularly robust within MENA. Sub-Saharan Africa is also conflict prone; however, the onset of nonviolent and violent movements is lower than MENA.