Russia's Kaliningrad Exclave at the Crossroads

The article stresses the potential for conflict stemming from the realities as given with respect to Russia's exclave in the Baltics, the Kaliningrad region. The perspectives for the region's future development are discussed against the background of a number of factors: its existence as an exclave; its ambiguous history and therefore still widely questioned status; the peculiarities of its economy; the disputed transit issues; its sensitive role with respect to the debate on Russia's integrity and future political orientation; and, not least, its security-political significance with regard to the Russian defence posture, the CFE arms control regime and the debate on an enlargement of NATO. It is argued that the idea, pursued by the regional administration, to develop the exclave as a free economic zone has no chance of materializing in coexistence with the region's present high military profile, the latter being both a cause for and an effect of unsettled international relations with respect to the region. However, it is also argued that a solution is not only the responsibility of Russia but also a matter for Baltic Sea regional cooperation and European multilateralism. If the Baltic Sea region neighbours want a `merchant's scenario' to prevail over a `warrior's scenario', they too have to move considerably.