Jobs of the Future and the Education They Will Require: Evidence From Occupational Forecasts

Analyses of occupational forecasts have played a prominent role in this debate about the skill and educational implications of changes in technology and other developments in the economy. Unfortunately, some analysts and commentators have used the data to argue that skill and educational demands are rising while others rely on occupational data to support the argument that skills are unchanged or falling. Although the latest occupational data suggest that a dramatic educational upgrading of the occupational structure is not taking place, they do indicate that at the very least there is a steady increase in those occupations that currently employ more highly educated workers. Moreover, there is a case to be made that the projections underestimate the extent of upgrading. In the end, there are severe limitations to the usefulness of occupational forecasting for guiding educational reform. Many of the most significant changes may be taking place within occupational categories, yet occupational forecasts can tell us little about these changes. Moreover, while the occupational data may tell us something about needed changes in the amount of schooling, the most important issues for educational reform probably concern the content, not the amount, of education.