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Akaike’s information-theoretic criterion for model discrimination (AIC) is often stated to “overfit”, i.e., it selects models with a higher dimension than the dimension of the model that generated the data. However, when no fixed-dimensional correct model exists, for example for pharmacokinetic data, AIC, or its bias-corrected version (AICc) might be the selection criterion of choice if the objective is to minimize prediction error. The present simulation study was designed to assess the behavior of AICc when applying it to the analysis of population data, for various degrees of interindividual variability. The simulation study showed that, at least in a relatively simple mixed effects modeling context, minimal mean AICc corresponded to best predictive performance even in the presence of large interindividual variability.
Olofsen et al. (Mon,) studied this question.