The American Symbiotic Pulsation in Brazil: From Soft Power to Smart Power and the Making of the Peripheral Economic Valley, 1990-2024 (working paper + replication package)

This deposit contains the working paper and the preliminary replication package for The American Symbiotic Pulsation in Brazil: From Soft Power to Smart Power and the Making of the Peripheral Economic Valley, 1990-2024. The paper examines the configuration of an American hegemonic regime over Brazil between 1990 and 2024, articulated in two complementary phases — soft power (1990-2013) and smart power (2014-2024) — and proposes that the economic valley 2015-2022 is attributable to the persistent drainage of reinvestable capital out of the Brazilian economy. The analysis integrates five empirical vectors (Brazilian Central Bank remittance series, BPM6 ownership stocks, physical privatisation inventory, United States Bureau of Economic Analysis mirror receipts, and an institutional chronology of forty milestones) and a battery of econometric tests with explicit adversarial inference (a Chow break, an SVAR with alternative Cholesky orderings, a Solow growth accounting, an event-study with Holm-Bonferroni correction, a Difference-in-Differences with wild cluster bootstrap, a canonical Synthetic Control with placebo permutation, and a multivariate regression with institutional dummies). Three findings survive rigorous testing. First, the Solow decomposition assigns the entire growth gap of the Smart 2014-2022 phase to capital contribution contraction, while total factor productivity remains statistically stable. Second, the SVAR under two Cholesky orderings attributes less than three per cent of GDP variance to terms of trade, while domestic financial-institutional channels account for over sixty per cent. Third, four institutional dummies survive Holm-Bonferroni correction in the regression of dividends remitted to United States funds. The configuration is compatible with — but does not uniquely identify — a coordinated extraction regime interpretation. Contents of the deposit: Full manuscript PDF (English) Eight econometric Python scripts (Chow, ADF, KPSS, Granger, VAR/SVAR, FEVD, Solow, PCA, event-study, DiD with wild cluster bootstrap, Synthetic Control with placebo, Johansen, multivariate regression with Newey-West HAC errors and Holm-Bonferroni correction) Datasets: BCB SGS series 22713-22788, IBC-Br 24364, BEA mirror, World Bank WDI Output tables in CSV (Solow, ADH Synthetic Control, dummies regression, FEVD) Seven figures in PNG 300 DPI README.md, LICENSE (CC-BY-4.0), CITATION.cff, requirements.txt The paper is currently under peer-review at the Cambridge Journal of Economics (submitted 31 May 2026) and is also available as a working paper at SSRN Abstract ID 6859378. This is a preliminary v1.0 deposit. An updated v1.1 may be deposited upon acceptance at the Cambridge Journal of Economics, incorporating any revisions requested in peer-review.