Prediction of Tumor Control in 90Y Radioembolization by Logit Models with PET/CT-Based Dose Metrics

The aim of this work was to develop models for tumor control probability (TCP) in radioembolization with 90Y PET/CT–derived radiobiologic dose metrics. Methods: Patients with primary liver cancer or liver metastases who underwent radioembolization with glass microspheres were imaged with 90Y PET/CT for voxel-level dosimetry to determine lesion absorbed dose (AD) metrics, biological effective dose (BED) metrics, equivalent uniform dose, and equivalent uniform BED for 28 treatments (89 lesions). The lesion dose–shrinkage correlation was assessed on the basis of RECIST and, when available, modified RECIST (mRECIST) at first follow-up. For a subset with mRECIST, logit regression TCP models were fit via maximum likelihood to relate lesion-level binary response to the dose metrics. As an exploratory analysis, the nontumoral liver dose–toxicity relationship was also evaluated. Results: Lesion dose–shrinkage analysis showed that there were no significant differences between model parameters for primary and metastatic subgroups and that correlation coefficients were superior with mRECIST. Therefore, subsequent TCP analysis was performed for the combined group using mRECIST only. The overall lesion-level mRECIST response rate was 57%. The AD and BED metrics yielding 50% TCP were 292 and 441 Gy, respectively. All dose metrics considered for TCP modeling, including mean AD, were significantly associated with the probability of response, with high areas under the curve (0.87–0.90, P 0.75) and specificity (>0.83) calculated using a threshold corresponding to 50% TCP. Because nonuniform AD deposition by microspheres cannot be determined by PET at a microscopic scale, radiosensitivity values extracted here by fitting models to clinical response data were substantially lower than reported for in vitro cell cultures or for external-beam radiotherapy clinical studies. There was no correlation between nontumoral liver AD and toxicity measures. Conclusion: Despite the heterogeneous patient cohort, logistic regression TCP models showed a strong association between various dose metrics and the probability of response. The performance of mean AD was comparable to that of radiobiologic dose metrics that involve more complex calculations. These results demonstrate the importance of considering TCP in treatment planning for radioembolization.