Explaining Transitions from Neopatrimonial Dictatorships

number of possible political trajectories for neopatrimonial regimes.2 A military coup, a nonrevolutionary transition to civilian rule, and ongoing stability are also possibilities. In this article I analyze the nonrevolutionary cases of Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines, Franqois Papa Doc Duvalier and Jean-Claude Baby Doc Duvalier in Haiti, Alfredo Stroessner in Paraguay, and Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire, alongside the revolutionary cases of Anastasio Somoza Debayle in Nicaragua, Mohammad Reza Shah in Iran, and Fulgencio Batista in Cuba, in order to sharpen our understanding of the conditions that influence transitions from neopatrimonialism. My purpose is to examine the variables which adcount for transition to military dictatorship, transition to civilian rule, stability, and revolution as alternative paths of political development for neopatrimonial regimes. Neopatrimonial regimes are characterized by the chief executive's maintenance of state authority through an extensive network of personal patronage, rather than through ideology or impersonal law.3 The degree to which the patronage network radiating from the ruler penetrates state institutions, especially the military, tends to be uneven and to fluctuate over time. There is often an ongoing struggle between the dictator, who seeks to wrest autonomy from state institutions, and the incumbents of these institutions, who seek to retain autonomy. In neopatrimonial regimes the degree to which the patronage network penetrates civil society also varies. Hence the position of societal elites and their followers can range from thorough cooptation by patronage resources to denial of such resources altogether. The variables I propose as explanations for the alternative paths of transitions from neopatrimonialism capture changes in the relationship of the dictator's patronage network to state institutions and to societal elites.