Effect of rising percentage of female physicians on projections of physician supply

The Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) in 1980 projected a surplus of 145,000 physicians in the year 2000. Inherent in the GMENAC prediction are several assumptions, including the assumption that the current percentage of female physicians will remain unchanged. However, the number of female physicians is increasing at a rapid rate. Since it has been estimated that female physicians work 40 percent fewer hours during their lifetimes than their male counterparts, the increasing percentage of female physicians will result in a decrease in overall physician productivity as measured by total practice hours. Using an adjustment to the GMENAC model that will take into account the changing male/female ratios of physicians, the estimated physician surplus in the year 2000 is reduced by 41,000 physicians, or approximately 28 percent of the GMENAC-predicted surplus.