Acts of Democracy: Identity Threat, Autocratization and Voter Turnout in Hong Kong

Abstract How does identity threat affect mass political participation during times of autocratization? Building on social identity and group threat literatures, we theorize that perceived threats to Hong Konger identity increase voter turnout; however, the political salience of this threat is contingent on the degree of autocratization. We test this argument utilizing the case of Hong Kong, whose ongoing incorporation into the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has entered an unprecedented era of autocratization. We argue that threats to Hong Konger identity came to mobilize voter participation, especially as autocratization progressed in Hong Kong. Hong Kongers resisted during this period of political change through their intention to turn out to vote. We conducted three original experiments during different transitionary periods of Hong Kong’s autocratic shift. We find that priming identity threat had no effect on voter turnout before Hong Kong’s autocratic divergence. However, once more extreme forms of autocratization began, Hong Kongers assigned to an identical identity threat treatment were substantially more likely to report a higher likelihood of voting. This mobilizing effect persisted in a third experiment. Our results suggest a paradox where citizens’ propensity to vote increases when faced with perceived shrinking opportunities to participate in elections during times of authoritarian transition.